Tourist in MSN

I consider anything more than five days out to be useful for planning, but subject to error. Within five days, pretty accurate in my opinion.

Even a 6 hour forecast can be wrong when it comes to trying to predict exactly where the thunderstorm will be, it might be 30 miles away so you could have beautiful blue sky while elsewhere on your route it is getting nailed.

I like to look at forecast maps for some of my planning. The 24 hour precip map and some of the others. Here is a expected precip rate map using the European model. Some model runs are 10 day, but some are less than 4 days. This model updated four times a day. Clicking the play button gives you a loop.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...=ref_frzn&fh=0

24 hour total precip:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...apcpn24&fh=024

Very short term forecast model, updated hourly, simulated radar
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...pos=0&ypos=175

Short term total precip using that same model:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...pos=0&ypos=175

The other kind of precip:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...pos=0&ypos=175

These are links that are favorites on my computer, thus you can see which region I live in. One problem with this website is when you make a change, it inserts into the link you created the run time. So, saving a link as a favorite can give you a false forecast later when you are looking at an old forecast.

Tropical Tidbits has an android app for your phone.

Pivotal is another similar website.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model...s_mw&dpdt=&mc=

I use their free versions without the extra bells and whistles. I do not know if Pivotal has a phone app or not.

One nice thing about looking at a forecast map is it becomes more clear if a slight location error can give you a completely different weather situation. Some weather patterns cover large areas and everyone will be hit by it, some will be a long line that passes through a region so you know you will hit but the timing could be slightly off. And then there is the pop up storms that might pop up 20 miles away without touching you.

I have had zero formal training in meteorology, but I am a scientist and engineer so I have the kind of thought processes in my brain to be able to understand this stuff to some degree with repeated exposure to it. I find that after several years of playing around with these forecast tools, it has helped me to understand when the forecast goes wrong, why it went wrong.

For long range planning, I am often surprised how the European modal and GFS model can be quite different, but the next model run can be quite different than the previous model run.

When I see a map like this it tells me that there is a good chance of precip over a wide area. But you do not know where the specific storm cells will be, so some of that will be hit and miss. And some of that lightest green on the map will be precip that a radar would pick up, but it evaporates before hitting ground.



The times are listed with a Z, meaning zulu time, or Greenwich Mean Time (GMT).

Not sure if this would help you or not. But I find it is useful at times to look at this stuff. And all models are subject to error. They might use super computers to run these models, but still they are only models and not the real world.

Tourist in MSN

I fully agree.

But I also have often adjusted by schedule to try to avoid heavy traffic times. Earlier morning is often less traffic.

And adjusted short term routing decisions based on traffic and visibility concerns too. Five years ago I had to decide which to do, ride from Charlottetown, PEI to the Confederation Bridge on roads or take a slightly longer route that was mostly on their bike trail network. It was going to be on Canada Day. And rain most of the day. Rain on gravel, I assumed that meant more rolling resistance, probably a 20 percent speed reduction. I decided that much of the traffic would be holiday traffic and in overcast or rain conditions would have poor visibility. That is why I chose to ride on a wet gravel trail all day on a bike without good fenders, I felt the safest thing to do would be to avoid traffic that day.




And in June on the prairie, you could easily find yourself on some hot muggy days adjusting your schedule more for the heat and humidity than the wind.

I applaud your efforts to increase your time efficiency with highly detailed planning tools. But sometimes, it just gets way too complicated to get too mathematically detailed. I am more inclined to look at the data and make a decision. And from poor decisions, I make fewer poor decisions in the future as my thought process gets more experienced.

gauvins

Tourist in MSN Thanks for the comprehensive list of resources that you've posted. I'll look into this. Also a very good point WRT temperature and humidity levels.