View Poll Results: Do weather forecasting sites hype up the chances of rain for clickbait?
Yes
16
45.71%
No
19
54.29%
Voters: 35. You may not vote on this poll
Do weather forecasting websites hype up the chances of rain for clickbait?
#51
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#53
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#54
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I know what you're saying. it's just mighty frustrating when a high probability of rain (e.g. 70 percent) turns into no rain more than once in a week.
Unfortunately, that's not how probability works. A 70 percent chance of rain on a given day does not mean it will rain 7 out of 10 such days. You can think of a baseball player who has a 0.25 batting average. It does not mean they get one hit every four at-bats. It simply means they have a 25 percent chance of getting a hit in each at-bat.
Unfortunately, that's not how probability works. A 70 percent chance of rain on a given day does not mean it will rain 7 out of 10 such days. You can think of a baseball player who has a 0.25 batting average. It does not mean they get one hit every four at-bats. It simply means they have a 25 percent chance of getting a hit in each at-bat.
And in terms of forecasting, that is exactly how you measure the long accuracy of forecasts. If it rains close 70% of the time you give a 70% chance of rain, then your 70% forecasts are reliable.
And my point was that not raining 30% of the time (3 in 10) is not indicative of an error in the forecasting.
A batting average is not the same a a forecast. You may base your forecast on the batting average, though. But forecasting the chance of a hit at a specific at-bat may also take other things into account, like who is pitching and if the batter it injured,
#55
Senior Member
The accuracy of a weather forecast may depend somewhat on one's location. Here, they can monitor weather patterns in the Pacific and forecasts are quite good.
I grew up in a time when a next day forecast was about as good as it could get, and even that made lots of errors, with many jokes that more accurate forecasts could be made by simply sticking one's hand out the window.
Then we had a squawk box that would eventually give a few days advance notice.
Then, perhaps 5 days to 7 days. Then 10 days. Now 14 days on weather.com
And I find the weather forecast to be very good. My biggest annoyance was when I was heavily bike commuting. I'd check the forecast before leaving. If it said no rain, then I'd leave the rain gear at home. Inevitably there'd be days when it was nice all day, then start pouring at about 6:00 PM, right as I'd be headed home. As if they ignored the evening as part of the day.
Erring towards predicting rain when the weather is good may be preferable to predicting sun and getting rain. For hay, one needs about a week of good sunny weather. Cut the hay, and then get a week of rain, and one can lose the entire crop, which can be an economic disaster.
I grew up in a time when a next day forecast was about as good as it could get, and even that made lots of errors, with many jokes that more accurate forecasts could be made by simply sticking one's hand out the window.
Then we had a squawk box that would eventually give a few days advance notice.
Then, perhaps 5 days to 7 days. Then 10 days. Now 14 days on weather.com
And I find the weather forecast to be very good. My biggest annoyance was when I was heavily bike commuting. I'd check the forecast before leaving. If it said no rain, then I'd leave the rain gear at home. Inevitably there'd be days when it was nice all day, then start pouring at about 6:00 PM, right as I'd be headed home. As if they ignored the evening as part of the day.
Erring towards predicting rain when the weather is good may be preferable to predicting sun and getting rain. For hay, one needs about a week of good sunny weather. Cut the hay, and then get a week of rain, and one can lose the entire crop, which can be an economic disaster.
#56
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. 70% chance of rain means 70% chain of rain, and 30% chance of no rain.
So if the forecasting is reliable, then 3 out of 10 times they say 70% chance of rain it will not rain.
If there is any “blame” to be had, it is that people do not understand forecasting and probability.
So if the forecasting is reliable, then 3 out of 10 times they say 70% chance of rain it will not rain.
If there is any “blame” to be had, it is that people do not understand forecasting and probability.
In the Northeast, I have found that anything more than 3 days out is useless and should be taken with a grain of salt. There is an old saying in New England: If you don't like the weather, just wait 5 minutes.
#57
Senior Member
^^^This. 10% chance of rain usually turns out to be a beautiful day, but there is still that 10% chance. The other thing I have found is that radar does not pick up mist and drizzle. I once ended up riding in 30 miles of mist and drizzle on a 0% chance of rain day.
In the Northeast, I have found that anything more than 3 days out is useless and should be taken with a grain of salt. There is an old saying in New England: If you don't like the weather, just wait 5 minutes.
In the Northeast, I have found that anything more than 3 days out is useless and should be taken with a grain of salt. There is an old saying in New England: If you don't like the weather, just wait 5 minutes.
As Mark Twain said, “If you don't like New England weather, wait a few minutes.”
People often cite that quotation but substitute Pennsylvania, or West Virginia, or . . . .
#58
Senior Member
...
And in terms of forecasting, that is exactly how you measure the long accuracy of forecasts. If it rains close 70% of the time you give a 70% chance of rain, then your 70% forecasts are reliable.
And my point was that not raining 30% of the time (3 in 10) is not indicative of an error in the forecasting.
...
And in terms of forecasting, that is exactly how you measure the long accuracy of forecasts. If it rains close 70% of the time you give a 70% chance of rain, then your 70% forecasts are reliable.
And my point was that not raining 30% of the time (3 in 10) is not indicative of an error in the forecasting.
...
P.o.p. is for a specified region or area. So 70% chance of rain actually means that 70% of that area will experience rain.
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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prob..._precipitation
#60
70% chance of rain at a given location over a given time period is simply that. An informed estimate of the likelihood of rain at that location and time.
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#62
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"The current powers"? The mods here are volunteers it isn't some secret cabal of Rothschilds or even Rothsteens or Rothsadults just a bunch of volunteers keeping a online forum from descending into complete chaos. There is no weird conspiracy behind them they are not some elite force keeping you down though I guess they have banned other users for doing what you are doing but that is normal for any well run forum. I guess you don't yet understand how things work which from seeing your posts make sense but it isn't tough not everyone is out to get you and not everyone is planting secret potato chips in you nor are there lizard people controlling you with fluoride and Doritos nor did Michael Jackson, James Naismith and Pliny the Elder fake the Mars landing on a sound stage in Mumbai. Sometimes yes there are some harder to explain things by your average person but that doesn't mean there is a conspiracy or some clickbait behind it.
Sometimes you are believing things to fit in rather than using the old noggin or you are using the old noggin in the case of an online forum to troll people instead of having a meaningful discussion about the topics of the forums in this case bikes. So many great things and less than great things to talk about that are cycling related and not just the weather and sunscreen ingredients which are not cycling related in the way you have presented them.
Also of note vaccines won't cause Jungle Boogie, Smoke on the Water or turn you into a Tiny Dancer or a Disco Duck, despite what Grimace and the Noid have told you (remember kids avoid the Noid).Though Scatman might cause you to ski-ba-bop-ba-dop-bop but beyond that you should be OK.
Sometimes you are believing things to fit in rather than using the old noggin or you are using the old noggin in the case of an online forum to troll people instead of having a meaningful discussion about the topics of the forums in this case bikes. So many great things and less than great things to talk about that are cycling related and not just the weather and sunscreen ingredients which are not cycling related in the way you have presented them.
Also of note vaccines won't cause Jungle Boogie, Smoke on the Water or turn you into a Tiny Dancer or a Disco Duck, despite what Grimace and the Noid have told you (remember kids avoid the Noid).Though Scatman might cause you to ski-ba-bop-ba-dop-bop but beyond that you should be OK.
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#64
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Do weather forecasting websites hype up the chances of rain for clickbait?
Plus, using a couple of good adware suppression features on my computer helps to keep the muck down to a bare minimum. I generally don't see much stuff like that.
#65
Senior Member
#66
Being a city boy from the east, I focused at lot more on potential weather. A woman in Montana told me that she keeps a pair of boots, coat and shovel behind the seat of her pickup truck because the weather can change so quickly and wildly.
Riding through the Cabinet Mountains area it was completely overcast, cold and misty when we started out. A few of us stopped in a roadhouse in Little Joe, MT (real name) for some warming coffee after maybe 15 miles. When we left about 30 min. later there was not a cloud in the sky.
#67
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Thanks for checking in. They elaborated on that using the "as N gets large" explanation in their next reply, so we are on the samge page. Honestly, without that elaboration, I take "3 out of 30 times" literally, as I've met a lot of people who do interpret a 30 percent probability as "happening 3 out of 10 times' with no context.
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The value of your life doesn't change based on the way you travel. - Dawn Schellenberg (SDOT)
#68
"The current powers"? The mods here are volunteers it isn't some secret cabal of Rothschilds or even Rothsteens or Rothsadults just a bunch of volunteers keeping a online forum from descending into complete chaos. There is no weird conspiracy behind them they are not some elite force keeping you down though I guess they have banned other users for doing what you are doing but that is normal for any well run forum. I guess you don't yet understand how things work which from seeing your posts make sense but it isn't tough not everyone is out to get you and not everyone is planting secret potato chips in you nor are there lizard people controlling you with fluoride and Doritos nor did Michael Jackson, James Naismith and Pliny the Elder fake the Mars landing on a sound stage in Mumbai. Sometimes yes there are some harder to explain things by your average person but that doesn't mean there is a conspiracy or some clickbait behind it.
Sometimes you are believing things to fit in rather than using the old noggin or you are using the old noggin in the case of an online forum to troll people instead of having a meaningful discussion about the topics of the forums in this case bikes. So many great things and less than great things to talk about that are cycling related and not just the weather and sunscreen ingredients which are not cycling related in the way you have presented them.
Also of note vaccines won't cause Jungle Boogie, Smoke on the Water or turn you into a Tiny Dancer or a Disco Duck, despite what Grimace and the Noid have told you (remember kids avoid the Noid).Though Scatman might cause you to ski-ba-bop-ba-dop-bop but beyond that you should be OK.
Sometimes you are believing things to fit in rather than using the old noggin or you are using the old noggin in the case of an online forum to troll people instead of having a meaningful discussion about the topics of the forums in this case bikes. So many great things and less than great things to talk about that are cycling related and not just the weather and sunscreen ingredients which are not cycling related in the way you have presented them.
Also of note vaccines won't cause Jungle Boogie, Smoke on the Water or turn you into a Tiny Dancer or a Disco Duck, despite what Grimace and the Noid have told you (remember kids avoid the Noid).Though Scatman might cause you to ski-ba-bop-ba-dop-bop but beyond that you should be OK.
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Thanks for checking in. They elaborated on that using the "as N gets large" explanation in their next reply, so we are on the samge page. Honestly, without that elaboration, I take "3 out of 30 times" literally, as I've met a lot of people who do interpret a 30 percent probability as "happening 3 out of 10 times' with no context.
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#70
Senior Member
Anyway, no forecast is perfectly accurate. But, let's try an experiment.
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l...77792e1e4fe722
A weather system just blew in yesterday and the day before bringing some rain, and leaving us with a lot of overcast clouds and cooler temperatures.
It currently shows sunny and partly cloudy for the next 14 days (June 20 to July 4), with the exception of "Morning Showers" Monday/Tuesday June 26/27 with a 39%/33% probability of showers.
So, we'll see...
#71
#72
Senior Member
Boy howdy! I had real difficulty getting my MIL to believe that playing the same numbers every time in the Lottery did not incrementally increase her chance of winning every time she lost. And the brain rebels against the idea that "1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6" has the same chance of winning as any other 6 numbers. It wants to think "random" = "evenly distributed"
As far as weather forecasts, I find them to be fairly accurate. And unlike in my youth, most local forecasters these days are meteorologists and follow established forecasting models. So I don't think there's a lot of bias involved. Being on the gulf coast, summer here sees many small pop up storms so a high probability of rain may be correct even if it doesn't actually hit me. My golf course is about 10 miles from my house and it's common to see it rain in one place and not the other. So you have to take that into account in assessing the relative accuracy.
#73
Whenever I fly, I always pack a bomb in my luggage. I do this, because the probability of there being two bombs on an airplane is extremely small.
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#74
Full Member
[QUOTE=bikelif3;22927539]
Often based on the previous evening forecast for rain, I often chalk up the next day as a "no ride rain day" only to have it be clear and sunny.
QUOTE]
I don't "chalk up". I just go ride. Rain 🌧️ is fine.It cools you off.
Often based on the previous evening forecast for rain, I often chalk up the next day as a "no ride rain day" only to have it be clear and sunny.
QUOTE]
I don't "chalk up". I just go ride. Rain 🌧️ is fine.It cools you off.
#75
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If I'm going riding, I look outside.
If it looks like it might be a day for rain showers then I pull up the weather radar from the website of one of the local stations and look at that to assess whether I'm happy with my chances of getting wet.
Only for special plans several days ahead will I glance at a weather site to see what they think might happen.
If it looks like it might be a day for rain showers then I pull up the weather radar from the website of one of the local stations and look at that to assess whether I'm happy with my chances of getting wet.
Only for special plans several days ahead will I glance at a weather site to see what they think might happen.