slcbob

Bernard fined 200 CHF for "unseemly or inappropriate behaviour during the race and damage to the image of the sport"

https://cyclinguptodate.com/cycling/...de-france-2024

Ballerini's fine for stage 5 is allegedly for watching Cav's sprint, but I haven't seen a meta-clip of him looking at the jumbotron or fan's phone or whatever.

GrainBrain

Nice job closing that gap Jorgenson!! Vingeegard's chances looking very very good now thanks to you buddy!


^^ This is literally what I see everyday I ride, such a connection to watch a stage like this. Suck it levfefterer.

Chicago Al 

"What a race we are having!"

MinnMan

Wow- Stage 11

Hondo6

Yep. Not a bad day for a guy who was in the hospital with a broken collarbone, multiple broken ribs, and a collapsed lung about 3 months ago.

(Edited to add: yes, I know Evenepoel and Roglic - among others - were also injured in the same multi-rider crash. But those two weren't injured anywhere near as badly as was Vingegaard. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like Jay Vine's injuries healed enough to allow him to compete in the Olympics.)

MinnMan

A heroic effort. Though it produced very little change in GC standings, it made clear that he's a threat.

But still, it's hard to see how V. can really put time into Pogacar, when Pogacar will have such a strong team with him.

USAZorro

I expect Pogacar to ride 14 and 15 defensively (relatively speaking), looking to blast up the final climbs to take a few seconds.

slcbob

I don't think it's hard at all to see it. Just like 2022 and 2023. Pogacar gets a little time here and there with his plucky attacks and explosiveness, Vingegaard absorbs that, carries on, then sticks in the knife deep and twists it on the long grind HCs that are more suited to him, recovering all that time and much more.

It was mano a mano today and will be again, teams or not. A few UAE folks closer to the fight today, but Visma has been surprisingly there at times. If it really comes down to teams, it may be for some bad luck like stage 9 and Tratnik's bike. Fingers crossed we avoid that.

A valid big doubt is whether the missing base fitness from all that time off the bike creeps up and bites Vingegaard deep in the Tour. He's not showing signs of it but there's always the chance.

Similarly, Pogacar has the Giro in his legs and matches burned like today to try to grab the little lead he's got. Is that even more likely to give him a jour sans relative to Vingegaard, something he hasn't managed to avoid the last two years?

The only sure thing, barring catastrophe, is that it'll be fun to watch.

OBoile

That would be the smart move. But, then, I think that would have been the smart move today too. A "bunch" sprint of ~8 guys at the end of today's stage where everyone was pretty fresh would have probably worked better for Pog than what played out.

MinnMan

True, but he seems to have thought that V. was going to crack under his attack and that he'd use the downhills to put a bunch of time into Jonas, like he did in the Galbier. He underestimated V.'s strength and put a lot of effort into a strategy that did not pay off. I don't blame him for trying.

This is turning out to be a really great Tour, all around.

HardyWeinberg

I love when they way beat the estimated time like today and I can see the end and still have time to ride to work.

Cav's recent sprint win was exactly wrong for me, he won right before I got into the office so couldn't flip on the streamer when I got there to catch the finale

diphthong

as slcbob chronicled...taddie likes to burn matches and gets away with it most of the time. if the fish monger can keep it close (like under 45 seconds) on gc, jv has a good chance to snatch the lead and possibly hold off poga
on the last tt/stage. when poga blows, he goes. tp has a better team this year and something tells me they are going to have a come to eddy moment and have to cover/drag taddie during the dreaded un jour sans. not the biggest
jonas fan but skeletor dude competes and gets it done. never flashy yet undeniably has what it takes to close the deal. tadej needs to ration his efforts. he already underestimated skeletor in a previous tour, don't recommend doing it again.

Jughed

(I know he is hated by many, but...)

The Move podcast with Lance, Big George and his guest this week - Sir Bradley Wiggins - broke down Pog's tactics on stage 11, some great insight from past winners and possibly one of the greatest lieutenants/teammates of all time.

Basically, they called him stupid. There is zero reason, while in the lead and with a full complement of teammates pulling for you, to attack 3 mountains from the finish.

He isolated himself from any team support, the team car couldn't get to him, he gained very little, he lost the mind games, he gave Jonas confidence, he burned matches...

And, since he is essentially gaining time on everyone during the descents - he is taking huge risks for very little gain.

He is either scared of Jonas in the high mountain stages this weekend, or he is trying to break him before the mountains.

slcbob

The only knock I have against Vingegaard is surprisingly fickle, but it really bugs me that he didn't mention his team at all when he was having his emotional "my family" moment on the trainer in the paddock after catching and out-sprintng Pogaçar.

Clearly a fierce competitor, not the most charismatic of champions, but one nonetheless. It was a HUGE "I'm back" moment after a heroic return, worthy of all the emotion. And it further cemented him in my mind as a sort of Smeagoly introvert that's more team member than team mate.

Jughed

Can say this - saw a clip where Jonas was getting off the cool down bike, he didn't know he was on camera - and he looked flat destroyed. As did Pogs, but Pogs knew he was on camera.

Both of them blew themselves up.

john m flores 

He's usually quite gracious and complimentary of his teammates so I'm ok with this emotional moment of self-reflection. And on Stage 11 in particular, he was isolated quite early and did have much team support.

That is the interesting dynamic - JLAB as a team isn't at the same climbing level as UAE and Jonas isn't as explosive a rider as Tadej. So when Jonas makes his move on a HC climb, how will it go down? Does JLAB has the right riders to really decimate the peloton and isolate Tadej? Will UAE be able to protect Pogaca and cover any Vingegaard attacks? Or will Jonas simply pedal away like he did to Primoz on Stage 11.

In any case, it's been a fascinating tour so far and we're likely to see a 3x champion in Nice!

slcbob

^ you have to put $5 in the Visma swear jar there, John!

Well noted. Vingegaard is generally polite, considerate, disciplined, and on point.

Hondo6

I think it was a bit of both. The past shows that in high mountains Vingegaard is the better climber and can gain large amounts of time if things go right. Breaking him before getting to the mountains would ensure that didn't happen and possibly cost Pogačar another TdF - a distinct possibility if Vingegaard is <2 min behind beginning the Pyrenees and Alpine stages. That's where we stood after stage 10; it's also where we stand today.

Unfortunately for Pogačar, the attempt may backfire. While for some reason the Giro isn't as highly regarded as the TdF, it's nonetheless a hard and physically demanding 3-week race. The Giro had to take something out of Pogačar; he may - or may not - suffer a huge "Giro hangover" in the TdF's 3rd week.

The same is true for Vingegaard. His crash, recovery, and curtailed training may affect him severely in week 3; it may not. We'll see soon enough.

Regardless, for a while it's going to be one helluva race. Hopefully that's the case all the way to Nice.

Eric F 

IMO, UAE has the better climbing support, but I still expect it to come down to a boxing match between Jonas and Tadej after all the support riders have been shelled. Tadej's style is knockout blows. Jonas' style is to exhaust you with constant jabs. Let's get ready to rumble!!

MinnMan

We're all saying somewhat different versions of the same thing. UAE has the ability to make the early stages of the climb hard. Almeida and Ayuso, followed by Adam Yates setting a fast pace will drop pretty much everybody but Pog, and Jonas. Maybe Remco, Roglic, and somebody else (Rodriguez) hangs on, but maybe not. Then, when the UAE machine is spent, what happens?

The thing is, if in the early stages of the ultimate climb, Jonas shows signs of weakness, Yates and Co. can nail him. But, if it's the other way around - Pog is flagging, then Jonas himself has to do the damage. I don't think he can count on Kelderman and Jorgenson setting a torrid tempo that will further tire Pog.

HeyItsSara

I really like it!

john m flores 

We must remember that Tadej is wearing the maillot jaune and it's up to VLAB (not JLAB - doh!) to attack. And there's the rub - VLAB is really missing Sepp Kuss right now. VLAB doesn't have a lot of riders to attack in the high mountains with. And UAE has a lot of riders to protect Tadej when VLAB does. The most likely scenario is:

1. VLAB sets a torrid pace in the Pyrenees and/or Alps. The main group thins considerably. UAE protects Tadej.
2. VLAB runs out of pacers. UAE still has riders protecting the maillot jaune

What then? Jonas doesn't have explosive attacking power, so his attacks can be thwarted by UAE riders dragging Tadej back up to Jonas. Within this context, I can understand Pogacar trying to steal an additional 30 seconds or so on Stage 11 - to give him more cushion.

As good as JV is, Tadej can still win this if he and his team ride defensively.

This year is one for the ages for sure!

Shadco 

JV could use a little Seppaku right about now.

.

79pmooney

Neither Podacar nor Vingegaard have ever seen week 3 of a grand tour after what they have seen this spring. First back to back GTs for Pogacar. That crash was a new experience for Vingegaard. How much of his resources has Pog burned doing the Giro? What could Vinge bank in that quick post crash training?

Jughed

Some early season analysis from Lance (sorry y'all, but he's been putting out some good stuff) broke down Pog's form right out of the gate.

Guy's like LA (and possibly Vingo as he only seems to peak for the TdF) would define what w/kg they would need to win the tour. He would start with 5.5+/- w/kg in the early season, may hit 6 w/kg in some lead up races, then peak at 6.5-7+ for the TDF. He/they knew what the competition was capable of, and they would train to beat them.

LA analyzed Pogs power back in the spring classics - he came into early season racing at 7+/- ++ w/kg right out of the gate. He kept that form in the Giro, and there are no signs that he isn't at that level in the tour.

So, either he peaked way early, is staying at a 10/10 level for too long of a period and is set to pop. Or that is just is natural sustainable level - which would be insane if true.

Last year he was winning stage races in February, winning spring classics, crashed/recovered, 2nd in the tour, then 3rd in the world championships only behind the two strongest men in one day racing.

LA flat said he could only keep that level of form for 2 races - a lead up race and the tour. Pogs holds it for 6 months+.

If he's simply at his sustainable level - I wouldn't expect him to pop. If he pops, it will be due to his own actions - like not running a smart race, running out of food, isolating himself from the team.