dcrowell

Ugh. Peak oil is real. The ramifications aren't well understood. Yes, there are a lot of chicken-little people running around, but that doesn't mean that oil won't cost more to extract and the amount extracted year over year won't decline.

You're probably thinking of the people who think civilization will crash when we hit the peak. Well, we may have already hit it. It'll take a few years to find out. Civilization won't crash, but it'll change.

... or maybe I'm just an optimist. (That would be a first for me)

newenglandbike

Thank you. I'm so glad someone has the gumption (considering present company) to point out that peak-oil is ONLY a theory. Yes, oil could be a finite resource, but that has not been proven. There are plenty who hypothesize, quite reasonably, that there is an infinite amount of oil available in the ground. The finite volume of the earth has nothing to do with it--- there are scientists who speculate that oil is periodically replentished by Santa Claus or the Pope for the 8% of humankind who've made the effort to better themselves and own cars (so they can work for a living)-- which makes perfect sense when you think about it.

Also: the fact that the United States uses more than 25% of the world's oil is only incidental to the economy. Remember kids, correlation does NOT imply causation, and furthermore, it is logically impossible to infer causal relationships, so just give up.

dcrowell

Peak oil says nothing about how much oil there is. It's about how much can be extracted, and at what price. Read The Oil Drum now and again. There are a number of viewpoints from people in the industry.

twobadfish

Lol wut? There are also people whom hypothesize that an alien race coexists in an interplanetary dimension that we are unable to perceive - right here on our own Earth.

The peak oil "theory" says nothing about oil being a finite resource - that's a widely known and accepted fact. Peak oil is a time at which the production and extraction of oil will begin to decline. Historically, based on what we know and have experienced with drilling in the past,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

twobadfish

That's a great resource. One of which does not include conspiracy theories about oil being an infinite resource.

From a recent publication of World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2010[1]:

There aren't many people in the oil industry that deny the fact that crude oil production has or will reach a peak. The only question is WHEN. And according to many authoritative resources, this occurred in 2006.

newenglandbike

I can only assume you did not read my post. But thanks for replying to it anyway!

twobadfish

Yes, I did. And I quoted what was important. You also said

I'm curious who in the oil industry quite reasonably hypothesizes that oil is an infinite resource.

newenglandbike

Thanks, but I don't think you read my post. FWIW check out the book "Limits to Growth" (recently updated), or any of the writings of Richard Heinberg.

z90

He read the first sentence. That's all you need to do to form an informed opinion about something, right?

newenglandbike

Are you serious? If you read my post and took it seriously, I guess you think I believe it's plausible that the Pope is replentishing oil as it is extracted(?) I know you don't know me but geez.


I'm sorry I even bothered this attempt at levity in the first place. You can't expect people to actually READ things before they reply.

twobadfish

I don't know who Richard Heinberg but I did some research and from what I understand he makes a few points:

1) Peak oil is history - not theory
2) Oil extraction in the US peaked in the 70s
3) Global oil peak is going to happen in the near future or has already happened


If your post was so laden in sarcasm that it was misunderstood then maybe you should reconsider the use of sarcasm - one of the most unintelligent forms of debate.

cooker

It was a joke, people.

z90

+1. Relax, tbf, it was just in good fun. And, as far as I can tell you are basically on the same side of the debate as neb.

Roody

Earlier people didn't face the prospect of diminishing resources, or at least they weren't aware of it. Today we know the pizza won't last forever, and if my slice is bigger, your share must be smaller.

Leisesturm

Absolutely what you said. We had a speaker for our bike club come out with his converted Civic because the President wants to convert his Honda del Sol. I said to both of them that if they converted a velomobile to plug in electric they would be way better off. Future electric vehicles need to be based off bicycle or velomobile technology not internal combustion technology.

H

Leisesturm

The last state I lived in had a decidedly anti-cyclist mentality. None of my friends rode bicycles but I did because I was raised in NYC where motorists weren't exactly friendly but pretty much left you to it as a vehicular cyclist. In Michigan, however, drivers take the time to honk at you, throw soft drink containers at you, hit you even, all deliberately, to show how irate they are at your presence on the road. Here in Oregon things are about as good as I could hope for in the U.S. but I fear that with the advent of near ~$10.00/gal. retail gasoline even the bike conscious Oregon motorists will be too fraught to share the road with any civility. Full time vehicular cyclists will be literally taking their lives in their hands by sharing road space with drivers pushed over the edge by the realities of needing to drive but not being able to afford to. The irony is that when I meet expat Europeans from the countries I am considering and ask them for insight they say "ugh, Europe... I'm glad to be out of it. I love America, I'm never going back to Europe!". A "grass is greener" thing? Maybe, but my SO has independently come to the same conclusions as myself about the future mental stability of the U.S. When pushed these same Europeans admit that they would never actually become American citizens. I suspect they don't want hordes of U.S. refugee's clogging up their country when they are ready to return.

H

gerv 

You over-dramatize what'll likely happen. I had a discussion today with several co-workers about how much they paid for cars and how much it cost to drive. One of them asked me how much I spent on bicycles. When I stated that my last bike cost $63 and would likely last me 15-20 years, I thought I saw a light come on.

JusticeZero

You do that... but i'd like to point out that Gravity is also only a theory. In fact, Gravity is still under debate and discussion, and has needed modification and revision several times in recent years. Unless you're one of those who believes in Intelligent Falling....
Theory is the most highly trusted and solid state of affairs for something to be in. Theories are far more trustworthy than mere facts, as the facts might be observed in error.

I-Like-To-Bike

I think that you are likely seeing "the light" from within yourself only.

My father bought a radio for $5 in the 40's and was still using it in the 60's; didn't keep him from buying a much more expensive TV. He recognized that though the radio was still working and that both radio and TV's are entertainment devices, a radio was no substitute for a TV.

The point: for most people, especially family people, a bike, no matter how cheap cannot serve as a suitable year round, all weather substitute for a motor vehicle.

newenglandbike

Exactly! The way these liberal earth-huggers talk about it, you'd think gravity was a foregone conclusion! It's only a theory people, there are very good arguments on BOTH sides- for and against the existence of gravity.


PS why can nobody read a whole post before responding (poor attempt at satire though it may have been, it's still obvious, no?).

gerv 

I think it's mistake looking for ONE all-weather/all-season solution. And I think that mistake is pretty common among my colleagues and neighbors. But I do run into quite a few people who like to commute by bike in good weather and then take a car or the bus when conditions aren't great.

Actually, in Des Moines, there are quite a few who do the bus/car thing quite often. Especially when they work downtown, where parking isn't convenient. In the suburbs, about 98% seem to take the car, year around.

Attitudes to multi-modal transport has changed a lot in Des Moines since I arrived. It's got a long way to go, but I think people are at least open to options.

I-Like-To-Bike

I'm sure you are correct on this point that using a bike instead of an already owned car for some trips might be considered an option. Al least when the weather, distance and terrain are favorable.

I doubt that the price of a bicycle, no matter how low, matters to most people, when deciding if replacing their automobile with a bicycle(s) is a reasonable "option" for meeting daily requirements for reliable family transportation.

gerv 

I imagine for most people it would work this way. A family with two or three vehicles has one person who starts doing a lot of things by bike (or bike and bus...). The second or third cars just sits there doing nothing, until one day someone decides to sell it.

That's kind of what happened in my family. We used to have two cars and last few years, we have become a one-car family.

The one car we have doesn't even get used that much.

But I agree with you, for many people, especially families with school-age kids, going completely car-free is difficult, if not impossible. At least this is the case in cities like those in the MidWest. I used to live in Canada, in a more densely-populated city. Our elementary school was an easy walk and the middle school wasn't that bad either. There were quite a few people who passed on the expense of a car.

I-Like-To-Bike

Again, I agree that this scenario is not far fetched. What is far fetched is that anyone's decision in this bike replacing a motor vehicle scenario would be dependent on a very low purchase price for the bicycle.

Roody

It's not the actual price, but the comparison that makes people think, IMO.

When I hurt my hand, I had to walk or bus to work for a while, then take a cab home. Some co-workers were saying that the cab must get pretty expensive. I said, yeah, it's $8 a night and I work about 20 nights a month, so that's $160 per month for the cab. They said, holy ****, my car expenses are double or triple that! I said they could imagine how much I save when I'm healthy and don't even need the cab.