Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?
#1126
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I didn't know that Waymo has a test site in Michigan. Winter driving...
Michigan is Waymo’s winter wonderland
Hmm, this stuff might be ready for Iowa by 2020 as well!
Michigan is Waymo’s winter wonderland
Hmm, this stuff might be ready for Iowa by 2020 as well!
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Did you watch the Drive.ai video of fully autonomous driving at night in the rain I posted above?
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That said, as mentioned earlier, driverless buses are going into trial with real passengers in Ann Arbor this spring, so give me a few months and I'll let you know how it goes.
No, but that technology is coming with and from the development of AVs. Smarter cruise control for instance is a direct benefit of that tech. Emergency automatic braking is also another example (and it uses some form of "sight" technology which is very similar to that in the AVs)
Interesting article, thanks for the reference. The comments are interesting too, as well as the article's author apparently dropping Uber completely from the list of contenders in the contest for fielding viable autonomous vehicles capable of being used for transporting passengers. I didn't notice any reference to what organizations are expected to buy, own or operate the rental fleets upon completion of the testing phase by the producers of the AV vehicles or hardware/software.
Any idea on who is going to be using the steering wheel-less GM cars in 2019, or where or how they are going to be used? Presumably the plan is that they will be limited to some limited "geo restricted zone", and probably only for tests on a limited number of routes; perhaps you have some inside info on this secret plan.
Any idea on who is going to be using the steering wheel-less GM cars in 2019, or where or how they are going to be used? Presumably the plan is that they will be limited to some limited "geo restricted zone", and probably only for tests on a limited number of routes; perhaps you have some inside info on this secret plan.
Yes, they will be limited in what they do and where they can go, simply because that is how testing and validation works. We have any number of traditional driver driven cars at work that are limited where they can be driven, because they have prototype systems that are not road legal. That doesn't mean the project is a failure, simply that they haven't met internal or regulatory signoff.
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I didn't know that Waymo has a test site in Michigan. Winter driving...
Michigan is Waymo’s winter wonderland
Hmm, this stuff might be ready for Iowa by 2020 as well!
Michigan is Waymo’s winter wonderland
Hmm, this stuff might be ready for Iowa by 2020 as well!
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Presumably taxi rides of the future will require more variation than leisurely trips down uncrowded suburban boulevards.
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#1132
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The video indicates that the vehicle was being driven (with a human at the wheel) exceptionally slow, as it didn't pass any moving cars at all, and all the other cars in the video pulled away from it as if it were standing still; it encountered nothing unusual or unexpected. Rain is immaterial other than when others' actions and reactions, especially pedestrians in crowded environments, are especially unpredictable. Again no video of the results of testing in a difficult environment.
Presumably taxi rides of the future will require more variation than leisurely trips down uncrowded suburban boulevards.
Presumably taxi rides of the future will require more variation than leisurely trips down uncrowded suburban boulevards.
"Would a self driving car World make it safe for cyclists?"
Again, the only real response to that is: If the cars follow all the rules of the road, then yes.
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There are two kinds of states. Those that have passed legislation to approve AV cars, and those that are one bill from doing so.
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Another factor may be a specific objective to show them in the best possible light and not exposing them to the trials and tribulations that drivers in difficult traffic environments see every day on their travels. At least prior to getting highly sought legal approvals from government officials driving them on all public streets, these PR videos seem to be a concerted effort to not encounter any traffic situation that might produce bad PR due to not necessarily being as "safe" as promised.
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The stretch of Interstate 380 between Iowa City and Cedar Rapids is poised to be the very first in the state to be fully mapped out for eventual autonomous vehicle traffic.
The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) has entered into a multiphase project with Chicago’s HERE company to collect the data and develop the platform needed to guide autonomous vehicles, according to a Monday announcement from HERE.
The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) has entered into a multiphase project with Chicago’s HERE company to collect the data and develop the platform needed to guide autonomous vehicles, according to a Monday announcement from HERE.
This is from October of 2016.
BTW in searching for this, I came across the comments of an Iowa farmer discussing his self driving tractor... and how it is "no big deal."
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The video indicates that the vehicle was being driven (with a human at the wheel) exceptionally slow, as it didn't pass any moving cars at all, and all the other cars in the video pulled away from it as if it were standing still; it encountered nothing unusual or unexpected. Rain is immaterial other than when others' actions and reactions, especially pedestrians in crowded environments, are especially unpredictable. Again no video of the results of testing in a difficult environment.
Presumably taxi rides of the future will require more variation than leisurely trips down uncrowded suburban boulevards.
Presumably taxi rides of the future will require more variation than leisurely trips down uncrowded suburban boulevards.
Passing bikes at 2:56, 3:20,
It makes a lot of turns and slows for those turns, of course, and that's when it's usually passed.
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Another possibility is that these vehicles do not have the capability to do anything else but travel on very limited and specially selected routes in tests.
Another factor may be a specific objective to show them in the best possible light and not exposing them to the trials and tribulations that drivers in difficult traffic environments see every day on their travels. At least prior to getting highly sought legal approvals from government officials driving them on all public streets, these PR videos seem to be a concerted effort to not encounter any traffic situation that might produce bad PR due to not necessarily being as "safe" as promised.
Another factor may be a specific objective to show them in the best possible light and not exposing them to the trials and tribulations that drivers in difficult traffic environments see every day on their travels. At least prior to getting highly sought legal approvals from government officials driving them on all public streets, these PR videos seem to be a concerted effort to not encounter any traffic situation that might produce bad PR due to not necessarily being as "safe" as promised.
We do know this: when glitches do happen, we hear about it, whether someone backs into one in Vegas, a Tesla slams into a truck and kills its driver, or it fails to enter a bike lane properly when turning right in San Francisco. And yet despite all the autonomous driving happening, and so much 3rd party "observing" and social media "reporting" these days, there is very little evidence of such problems.
Why do you think that is?
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Uber says it will have driverless cars picking up passengers next year. LIke I keep saying, I expect to have my first driverless ride before 2020.
Uber to begin using autonomous vehicles
Uber to begin using autonomous vehicles
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Some skeptics think the laws and regulations are a significant hurdle, but I think the lawmakers and regulators are eager to make this work. Government always works slowly; luckily this revolution does not require much from them.
"The U.S. Department of Transportation is expected to release new guidelines on self-driving vehicles in 2018 and many lawmakers hope those guidelines incorporate a balance between innovation and safety."
Lawmakers play catch-up when it comes autonomous vehicles
"The U.S. Department of Transportation is expected to release new guidelines on self-driving vehicles in 2018 and many lawmakers hope those guidelines incorporate a balance between innovation and safety."
Lawmakers play catch-up when it comes autonomous vehicles
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Another possibility is that you still want to equate specially selected routes as driving one road and learning it well to fool the system, when in reality it means they are driven on urban upkept paved roads which are properly signed and marked, i.e., where 90% of people do their daily driving and 99.9% of ridesharing/taxis are at.
Another possibility is many states are going to have folks in charge just like you, to whom no amount of data will ever be considered sufficient. You've already set up a loop where the technology is obviously a failure because it is not in use, and with which you will never agree to it being in use because no amount of data (that can;t be obtained) will convince you to allow it.
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In any case, it would be interesting to see how the Feds would look at the issue, as states generally have limited powers restricting legal vehicles from transiting through their states. I don't need a CA emission spec vehicle to drive into CA, for example, even if I may not be able to buy or register on there. Not sure if Iowa could tell a Michigan plated AV that it couldn't drive I80.
#1146
I don't question that self driving cars are coming. I question the time frames bandied about, the assumption they'll decrease the number of cars on the road, and the assumptions that self driving cars will be a long term benefit to cyclists. I've noted political pressures that could come to bear by the majority who will use driverless cars to get roads limited to only driverless cars, the added numbers who will now be able to drive that can't get a license now (young, elderly, blind, drunks), etc. Hosts of issues that could harm cycling even if the car itself doesn't.
Denser cities and trains are a better solution. Additional Urban sprawl with larger roads, larger intersections, and endless suburban roundabouts to optimize automonous car traffic over stop signs and lights, higher speed limits on all roads, and relegating bikes to paths and bike lanes only might be the result of driverless cars.
In 20 years it will be great to get into my car, tell it where to take me and tune out on my phone. If the car hits a cyclist it won't be my fault because I won't even have a steering wheel. We can automatically assume any accident was their fault.
Denser cities and trains are a better solution. Additional Urban sprawl with larger roads, larger intersections, and endless suburban roundabouts to optimize automonous car traffic over stop signs and lights, higher speed limits on all roads, and relegating bikes to paths and bike lanes only might be the result of driverless cars.
In 20 years it will be great to get into my car, tell it where to take me and tune out on my phone. If the car hits a cyclist it won't be my fault because I won't even have a steering wheel. We can automatically assume any accident was their fault.
#1147
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I will go so far and state that I believe once AV vehicles have "proven" themselves as safer or as good, as a "good" human driver, the sales of non-AV vehicles will dwindle, may even start to be mandated not safe to use on public roads... JMO Lets say in about 10 to 15 years from now...
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Because human drivers do not tend to hold to the speed limit. Sure, some do; but just try driving at or slightly below the speed limit on any arterial road and see how often you are passed. It will be a lot.
The "limit" for a lot of drivers is how fast the guy in front of them is driving.
https://www.wired.com/2008/11/the-boy-who-cri/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tanyamo.../#1f87df9d378a
Oh and this should give you a bit of pause...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...126563103.html
Yeah yeah... more "unreliable studies," eh? OK go out onto your local arterial road (not a quiet residential street) and try it yourself. Drive at or just slightly below the posted limit... and see if you don't find yourself passed often.
The "limit" for a lot of drivers is how fast the guy in front of them is driving.
From the Autopia Unintended Consequences Department comes this dispatch from Tippecanoe County, Indiana, where researchers at Purdue University say the majority of drivers have no problem going 5, 10 or even 20 mph over the speed limit and see no risk in doing so.
The study of 988 drivers in that county, where Purdue is located, found few people have any respect for speed limits, which they consider nothing more than vague guidelines they can ignore.
The study of 988 drivers in that county, where Purdue is located, found few people have any respect for speed limits, which they consider nothing more than vague guidelines they can ignore.
A new survey of drivers has found that nearly half said speeding is a problem and one in five admitted, “I try to get where I am going as fast as I can.”
Oh and this should give you a bit of pause...
The majority of Americans consider themselves to be good drivers but a new study reveals their candor tells a different – and dangerous – story.
American drivers believe their own driving knowledge, ability and safe driving habits are well above other drivers on the road. Nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of American drivers rate themselves as "excellent" or "very good" drivers. American drivers' positive self-rating is more than twice as high as the rating they give to their own close friends (29 percent "excellent" or "very good") and also other people their age (22 percent).
American drivers believe their own driving knowledge, ability and safe driving habits are well above other drivers on the road. Nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of American drivers rate themselves as "excellent" or "very good" drivers. American drivers' positive self-rating is more than twice as high as the rating they give to their own close friends (29 percent "excellent" or "very good") and also other people their age (22 percent).
- Eighty-nine percent say they've driven faster than the posted speed limit, and 40 percent say they've driven more than 20 miles per hour over the limit.
- Men are more likely to speed than women (48 percent versus 30 percent).
Yeah yeah... more "unreliable studies," eh? OK go out onto your local arterial road (not a quiet residential street) and try it yourself. Drive at or just slightly below the posted limit... and see if you don't find yourself passed often.
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I do hope you are right
In any case, it would be interesting to see how the Feds would look at the issue, as states generally have limited powers restricting legal vehicles from transiting through their states. I don't need a CA emission spec vehicle to drive into CA, for example, even if I may not be able to buy or register on there. Not sure if Iowa could tell a Michigan plated AV that it couldn't drive I80.
In any case, it would be interesting to see how the Feds would look at the issue, as states generally have limited powers restricting legal vehicles from transiting through their states. I don't need a CA emission spec vehicle to drive into CA, for example, even if I may not be able to buy or register on there. Not sure if Iowa could tell a Michigan plated AV that it couldn't drive I80.
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Get humans to obey the rules of the road and no one would advocate for AVs.
Since human motorists manage to kill close to 40,000 fellow humans a year... perhaps there is a better solution.