Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?
12-29-17, 04:08 PM
#876
You just used a computer or a cell phone to post this. You were wrong 20 years ago when you insisted there could never be anything called the Internet for at least 50 years, if ever, and you are wrong now in predicting that it will take "decades" before self-driving cars can take over from humans. Don't y'all learn? Even without AI, machines 'learn'. How they do that is above my pay grade, but I can observe the results. My powers of observation are not occluded by hysteria or ... bafflement.
12-29-17, 04:13 PM
#877
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you are wrong now in predicting that it will take "decades" before self-driving cars can take over from humans
What I said today was that it wouldn't be feasible to force automatic control of cars for decades, that is there will still be human driven cars for decades.
Last edited by tyrion; 12-29-17 at 04:19 PM.
12-29-17, 04:35 PM
#878
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I've been using the internet since the 1980s.
In 2014 I predicted self driving cars would be in commercial use on public roads by 2018.
What I said today was that it wouldn't be feasible to force automatic control of cars for decades, that is there will still be human driven cars for decades.
In 2014 I predicted self driving cars would be in commercial use on public roads by 2018.
What I said today was that it wouldn't be feasible to force automatic control of cars for decades, that is there will still be human driven cars for decades.
But I won't hold my breath waiting for such legislation... as I see how our system handles mass gun deaths.
12-29-17, 04:36 PM
#879
If ever. The legal right to drive your own car on public roads has over 100 years of precedent - that will be tough to overcome.
But what is likely to happen is more stringent training and licensing requirements - to bring human driving up to par with AVs in terms of safety.
It's all good.
But what is likely to happen is more stringent training and licensing requirements - to bring human driving up to par with AVs in terms of safety.
It's all good.
There is no amount of training that will make a human driver better than the best drivers on the road today. They aren't good (excellent) drivers because of their training. They are good (excellent) because of their aptitude (talent) for the task. Their focus. Integrity. Nothing we don't all have. No matter. It isn't good enough. Not by half. Machines don't blink. Don't yawn. The machine will NOT screw up. If an AV gets into an accident (and it could) it will be because something mechanical failed, the bridge it was on collapsed, the tunnel it was in collapsed, other circumstances beyond any entities ability to do anything about.
Seriously. I am really getting annoyed when people seriously put forth the position that humans are actually better at anything than a properly designed and programmed machine. The cars don't need to get as good as humans! They are already better than the best humans driving now! They can't think. Can't reason. Can't improvise but they can maneuver a car for crying out loud. That doesn't take human level consciousness. It takes superhuman focus. Sadly, despite, or maybe because of our human consciousness, we don't always focus. Humans invent machines to improve those things we know need improvement. Like flying and driving. It won't be decades my friend. That is the comfort that those who are only in their 30's facing all this... disempowerment...tell each other. Yes its scary... I sympathize. But there is an upside. You never have to dread the phone ringing in the dead of night will be the Highway Police telling you a loved one is at the coroners because they rolled their Miata on a bad corner.
12-29-17, 04:46 PM
#880
I suspect you are correct on this... however, if it is discovered that AVs save massive amounts of lives... there may be some future legislation that makes owning a "manual car" prohibitively expensive... or insurance for manual cars might make them a "luxury."
But I won't hold my breath waiting for such legislation... as I see how our system handles mass gun deaths.
But I won't hold my breath waiting for such legislation... as I see how our system handles mass gun deaths.
12-29-17, 04:53 PM
#881
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The key words being... "a properly designed and programmed machine."
Sorry, but time and time again it has been shown that industry will take shortcuts to achieve profits... whether it is in not installing controlling hardware that will prevent train crashes, or installing software that will cripple a phone to suit the companies' MTBF, or in designing crash airbags with improper explosives such that they harm rather than protect.
While I tend to believe that self driving cars can be better drivers than a vast number of current human drivers... I also have no faith in industry at large, and the ability of business in general to f*** up technology for the sake of profit.
We really still are at the wait and see stage.
While I do believe in tech, I worked in tech long enough to see human made decisions kill viable products... and some of this was for the stupidest little business reasons. Oh the tales I could tell... SIGH
Sorry, but time and time again it has been shown that industry will take shortcuts to achieve profits... whether it is in not installing controlling hardware that will prevent train crashes, or installing software that will cripple a phone to suit the companies' MTBF, or in designing crash airbags with improper explosives such that they harm rather than protect.
While I tend to believe that self driving cars can be better drivers than a vast number of current human drivers... I also have no faith in industry at large, and the ability of business in general to f*** up technology for the sake of profit.
We really still are at the wait and see stage.
While I do believe in tech, I worked in tech long enough to see human made decisions kill viable products... and some of this was for the stupidest little business reasons. Oh the tales I could tell... SIGH
12-29-17, 04:55 PM
#882
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If ever. The legal right to drive your own car on public roads has over 100 years of precedent - that will be tough to overcome.
But what is likely to happen is more stringent training and licensing requirements - to bring human driving up to par with AVs in terms of safety.
It's all good.
But what is likely to happen is more stringent training and licensing requirements - to bring human driving up to par with AVs in terms of safety.
It's all good.
12-29-17, 05:08 PM
#883
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I suspect you are correct on this... however, if it is discovered that AVs save massive amounts of lives... there may be some future legislation that makes owning a "manual car" prohibitively expensive... or insurance for manual cars might make them a "luxury."
But I won't hold my breath waiting for such legislation... as I see how our system handles mass gun deaths.
But I won't hold my breath waiting for such legislation... as I see how our system handles mass gun deaths.
12-29-17, 05:33 PM
#884
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Agreed although I don't think it will be feasible 'to bring human driving up to par with AVs'. Although legally driving is defined as a privilege rather than a right, there is extreme reluctance to restrict that privilege as long as legislatures, judges, and juries view driving as almost a necessity for normal daily living. Once AVs become the standard accepted way to get around I'd expect the standards for obtaining a driver's license to gradually become more strict, possibly on par with current requirements for a private pilot license. And judges and juries will no longer have much sympathy for those who violate traffic laws while choosing to drive manually making license revocation far easier.
Last edited by Ninety5rpm; 12-29-17 at 06:05 PM.
12-29-17, 06:08 PM
#885
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Actually, I think that can happen very quickly. Uber/Lyft is already convenient and cheap enough to replace us as drivers when we're on vacation. Once they become self-driving and much cheaper, it will make sense to do that and work on the way to work. That will happen almost over night.
12-29-17, 06:54 PM
#886
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Actually, I think that can happen very quickly. Uber/Lyft is already convenient and cheap enough to replace us as drivers when we're on vacation. Once they become self-driving and much cheaper, it will make sense to do that and work on the way to work. That will happen almost over night.
Why...? Because most people find it hard to keep up vehicles as a "normal" expense... They are very expensive, for the average person, but pretty well everyone "tries" to keep up with the "Jones's" but when it starts to change it will happen fast...
Last edited by 350htrr; 12-29-17 at 06:58 PM.
12-29-17, 07:44 PM
#887
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Actually, I think that can happen very quickly. Uber/Lyft is already convenient and cheap enough to replace us as drivers when we're on vacation. Once they become self-driving and much cheaper, it will make sense to do that and work on the way to work. That will happen almost over night.
12-29-17, 08:09 PM
#888
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Fortunately even at peak hours only a fraction of those 250 million cars are actually in use - and a much smaller fraction of their potential capacity. I'd expect fleet use of AVs to lead to an increasing amount of ride sharing and very high utilization during peak times.
But yes, even if only a small fraction of those 5 x 250 million car seats need to be replaced it'll still be a fairly long term project.
But yes, even if only a small fraction of those 5 x 250 million car seats need to be replaced it'll still be a fairly long term project.
12-30-17, 06:50 PM
#889
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Fortunately even at peak hours only a fraction of those 250 million cars are actually in use - and a much smaller fraction of their potential capacity. I'd expect fleet use of AVs to lead to an increasing amount of ride sharing and very high utilization during peak times.
But yes, even if only a small fraction of those 5 x 250 million car seats need to be replaced it'll still be a fairly long term project.
But yes, even if only a small fraction of those 5 x 250 million car seats need to be replaced it'll still be a fairly long term project.
It would be interesting to know what peak demand is. That is, what percentage of total car seats are used during peak commute times in a given area? That would give us an idea of how many ride share cars would be needed to replace, say, half those human drivers. Then we could estimate how long that would take. That said, the US alone produces 4 million cars per year.
12-30-17, 08:05 PM
#890
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What is the peak demand for washer and dryers in US homes; or toasters, or showers, or even in door plumbing/toilets? Owning such products to have them available on demand carries a lot of weight for most people. Only those who can't afford it or have some wacky theories stuck in their heads about the lack of value of convenience would give up owning such useful products for the wishful thinking vaporware of the techo dreamers.
12-30-17, 11:06 PM
#891
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What is the peak demand for washer and dryers in US homes; or toasters, or showers, or even in door plumbing/toilets? Owning such products to have them available on demand carries a lot of weight for most people. Only those who can't afford it or have some wacky theories stuck in their heads about the lack of value of convenience would give up owning such useful products for the wishful thinking vaporware of the techo dreamers.
Even in places where public transportation isn't an option, carshare services like Zipcar and rideshare services like Lyft and Uber make it easier than ever to use a car only when you need one, and not worry about it when you don't.
There's a lot of evidence that millennials don't drive as much — or care as much for cars in general — as previous generations their own age did. They're less likely to get driver's licenses. They tend to take fewer car trips, and when they do, those trips are shorter. They're also more likely than older generations to get around by alternative means: by foot, by bike, or by transit.
Driving numbers are down for younger people and the auto industry hasn’t found a way to respond. It’s because they don’t understand why millennials could possibly not want to drive.
And on and on it goes... a new generation... new transportation. The age of the buggy whip is long past.
Last edited by genec; 12-30-17 at 11:11 PM.
12-31-17, 12:22 AM
#892
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What is the peak demand for washer and dryers in US homes; or toasters, or showers, or even in door plumbing/toilets? Owning such products to have them available on demand carries a lot of weight for most people. Only those who can't afford it or have some wacky theories stuck in their heads about the lack of value of convenience would give up owning such useful products for the wishful thinking vaporware of the techo dreamers.
But shared AVs will match this. Instead of just walking into the garage, you'll probably have to walk to the end of the driveway, but you'll be able to order a car just before you put on your shoes and it should be waiting for you by the time you get outside.
The best part is when you get to your destination you don't worry about parking - you just get dropped off at the entrance. Vice versa when leaving.
What if you have a load to pickup at Home Depot, and then another load of groceries from the supermarket? You'll probably have to pay a nominal fee for it to wait. The cost of it waiting is negligible, except at peak time. The price for waiting time will probably be higher during those times. So you don't go shopping at multiple places at between 4 and 6pm... Or, if it's important, you pay a bit more.
I don't understand the comparison with washers and dryers because going to the laundromat has a high hassle factor associated with it.
12-31-17, 07:59 AM
#893
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There's certainly a convenience in having a car available 24/7 in the garage, and being able to to change your route on the fly.
But shared AVs will match this. Instead of just walking into the garage, you'll probably have to walk to the end of the driveway, but you'll be able to order a car just before you put on your shoes and it should be waiting for you by the time you get outside.
The best part is when you get to your destination you don't worry about parking - you just get dropped off at the entrance. Vice versa when leaving.
What if you have a load to pickup at Home Depot, and then another load of groceries from the supermarket? You'll probably have to pay a nominal fee for it to wait. The cost of it waiting is negligible, except at peak time. The price for waiting time will probably be higher during those times. So you don't go shopping at multiple places at between 4 and 6pm... Or, if it's important, you pay a bit more.
I don't understand the comparison with washers and dryers because going to the laundromat has a high hassle factor associated with it.
But shared AVs will match this. Instead of just walking into the garage, you'll probably have to walk to the end of the driveway, but you'll be able to order a car just before you put on your shoes and it should be waiting for you by the time you get outside.
The best part is when you get to your destination you don't worry about parking - you just get dropped off at the entrance. Vice versa when leaving.
What if you have a load to pickup at Home Depot, and then another load of groceries from the supermarket? You'll probably have to pay a nominal fee for it to wait. The cost of it waiting is negligible, except at peak time. The price for waiting time will probably be higher during those times. So you don't go shopping at multiple places at between 4 and 6pm... Or, if it's important, you pay a bit more.
I don't understand the comparison with washers and dryers because going to the laundromat has a high hassle factor associated with it.
Your dreamy conjuring on this subject doesn't become any closer to reality just because you believe in your own visions of a near perfect implementation of this scheme in the immediate future, and repeatedly chant on this thread the mantra of almost instant availability at bargain prices for "shared vehicles".
12-31-17, 09:59 AM
#894
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You don't understand the comparison because you just poo-poo away any possibility that your shared car vision of the almost instant availability of a suitable vehicle for minimal cost is spun up almost entirely from whole cloth of dreamy press releases and your own wishful thinking.
Your dreamy conjuring on this subject doesn't become any closer to reality just because you believe in your own visions of a near perfect implementation of this scheme in the immediate future, and repeatedly chant on this thread the mantra of almost instant availability at bargain prices for "shared vehicles".
Your dreamy conjuring on this subject doesn't become any closer to reality just because you believe in your own visions of a near perfect implementation of this scheme in the immediate future, and repeatedly chant on this thread the mantra of almost instant availability at bargain prices for "shared vehicles".
12-31-17, 11:38 AM
#895
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You don't understand the comparison because you just poo-poo away any possibility that your shared car vision of the almost instant availability of a suitable vehicle for minimal cost is spun up almost entirely from whole cloth of dreamy press releases and your own wishful thinking.
Your dreamy conjuring on this subject doesn't become any closer to reality just because you believe in your own visions of a near perfect implementation of this scheme in the immediate future, and repeatedly chant on this thread the mantra of almost instant availability at bargain prices for "shared vehicles".
Your dreamy conjuring on this subject doesn't become any closer to reality just because you believe in your own visions of a near perfect implementation of this scheme in the immediate future, and repeatedly chant on this thread the mantra of almost instant availability at bargain prices for "shared vehicles".
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6...-the-new-ride/ I don't think places like MIT would state that something is actually very likely to happen and happen very soon and very fast, if they were really only just dreamers talking about it.While the era of the connected car is still in its infancy, there is widespread optimism that it’s the wave of the future. Gartner projects that 250 million connected vehicles will hit the road worldwide by 2020. Moreover, the World Economic Forum anticipates driverless vehicles will generate $1 trillion in “economic benefit to consumers and society” over the next 10 years, and autonomous driving features will help prevent 9 percent of accidents by 2025 with the potential to save 900,000 lives in the next 10 years. By 2040, autonomous vehicles are expected to comprise around 25 percent of the global market.
EDIT; and... Just to stay on topic they also believe AV will save almost a million lives within 10 years...
Last edited by 350htrr; 12-31-17 at 11:55 AM.
12-31-17, 12:34 PM
#896
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What is your reference for computing the bottom line "ride price" (i.e. cost/fare to the consumer of this scheme) for profitably providing share rides for paying customers with driver less vehicles that will cover the expenses (currently paid by the drivers or the millions and millions of dollars in quarterly losses of investors' funds) of purchasing and maintaining a fleet of vehicles that may be without paying customers a large percentage of the time, insurance, taxes, tolls, fuel, and last but not least return on investment, etc.?
Last edited by I-Like-To-Bike; 12-31-17 at 01:38 PM.
12-31-17, 07:29 PM
#897
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I'm a proponent of self driving cars and understand both the economic and safety benefits they'll bring, but the benefits will come with a massive disruption. People that drive cars/trucks/buses for a living are going to be shafted.
The buggy whip industry declined over a period of decades, but the driver industry is much bigger and will collapse in less than a decade. It will be rough for millions of people.
But there's no stopping it. Strap on and enjoy the ride.
The buggy whip industry declined over a period of decades, but the driver industry is much bigger and will collapse in less than a decade. It will be rough for millions of people.
But there's no stopping it. Strap on and enjoy the ride.
12-31-17, 07:35 PM
#898
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I'm a proponent of self driving cars and understand both the economic and safety benefits they'll bring, but the benefits will come with a massive disruption. People that drive cars/trucks/buses for a living are going to be shafted.
The buggy whip industry declined over a period of decades, but the driver industry is much bigger and will collapse in less than a decade. It will be rough for millions of people.
But there's no stopping it. Strap on and enjoy the ride.
The buggy whip industry declined over a period of decades, but the driver industry is much bigger and will collapse in less than a decade. It will be rough for millions of people.
But there's no stopping it. Strap on and enjoy the ride.
I don't want to look up actual numbers and dates... so I am going to say...
1900; there was 10,000 cars In the world, how many cars in the world now...??? Just a 118 years later, a billion.?
I speculate, on reading some projections, they will ALL be replaced in the next 20+ years... by AV... and there certainly will be some growth pains, but onwards and upwards as they say...
https://www.driverless-future.com/?page_id=384
Last edited by 350htrr; 12-31-17 at 07:40 PM.
12-31-17, 08:34 PM
#900
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100%...
I don't want to look up actual numbers and dates... so I am going to say...
1900; there was 10,000 cars In the world, how many cars in the world now...??? Just a 118 years later, a billion.?
I speculate, on reading some projections, they will ALL be replaced in the next 20+ years... by AV... and there certainly will be some growth pains, but onwards and upwards as they say... Forecasts | Driverless car market watch
I don't want to look up actual numbers and dates... so I am going to say...
1900; there was 10,000 cars In the world, how many cars in the world now...??? Just a 118 years later, a billion.?
I speculate, on reading some projections, they will ALL be replaced in the next 20+ years... by AV... and there certainly will be some growth pains, but onwards and upwards as they say...
Forecasts | Driverless car market watchAlll the po' folks getting the hand-me-downs and vintage Mustang, Camaro and Mopar Lovers aren't about to care much.
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